How the estimate works
Use your own server rates
Metin2 Dragon Stone Alchemy has multiple progression layers: class, clarity, and level. The simulator lets you set success rates yourself because private servers and official servers may differ. The output is an expected-value estimate, not a guarantee.
Use it to compare whether pushing clarity, class, or level is the bigger material sink. For long-term planning, enter your daily Cor Draconis farming capacity and number of characters to estimate the time cost.
Why a Metin2 alchemy simulator beats doing it in your head
Dragon Stone Alchemy is a compounding probability problem, and compounding probability is the thing human intuition is worst at. A step that succeeds three times in four sounds close to certain; four of them in a row succeed less than a third of the time. Players routinely start a push believing it will cost a handful of attempts and stop several times that many in, not because they were unlucky but because the arithmetic was never on their side to begin with.
The simulator exists to put the number in front of you before you commit rather than after. An expected cost you disagree with is still more useful than a guess you never checked, which is why the rates are yours to set.
The three layers, and which one to push first
Class, clarity and level are separate tracks with separate costs, and they do not reward attention equally at every stage. Class changes what the stone can be. Clarity changes how much of that potential you actually get. Level is the slow grind that compounds on top of both.
The common mistake is pushing level on a stone whose class or clarity is going to be replaced later. Every level you add to a stone you will eventually discard is material spent on nothing. Run the numbers for the end state you actually want, then work backwards to which layer is the bottleneck — the simulator is faster at that than a spreadsheet, and far faster than finding out by attempting it.
Turning material cost into farming time
A cost in Cor Draconis is abstract; a cost in hours is a decision. Enter your realistic daily farming capacity and how many characters you farm on, and the estimate becomes something you can weigh against everything else you could do with that time.
Be honest with the daily figure. The most common way this estimate goes wrong is not the success rates but the farming input: players enter their best day rather than their average one, and then wonder why the projection ran a month long. A conservative number produces a plan you can actually keep.
What the estimate cannot tell you
It is an expected value, not a promise. Expected cost is what you would spend on average across many attempts, and any single run can land well on either side of it. Half of all players will do better than the estimate and half will do worse; that is what an average means, and it is not evidence that the rates are wrong.
It also cannot know your server. Rates differ between official and private servers and change with updates, which is exactly why they are inputs rather than constants here. If your server publishes its own rates, use those — the simulator is only as good as the numbers you give it.
Alchemy alongside the other Metin2 tools
Alchemy is one of three long-term material sinks, and it competes with the other two for the same farming hours. The upgrade simulator answers the same class of question for items, and the Yang goal calculator converts any target into the time it will take to fund. Running all three before committing is how you find out which one your next month should actually go into.
Metin2 alchemy simulator FAQ
Does the simulator use official server rates?
No, and that is deliberate. Rates differ between official and private servers and change with updates, so every rate is an input you set. If your server publishes its own numbers, use those; the estimate is only as good as what you feed it.
Why does my real attempt count differ from the estimate?
Because it is an expected value across many attempts, not a prediction of one. Roughly half of all runs cost more than the estimate and half cost less. A run that came in well over is normal variance rather than evidence the rates were wrong.
Should I push class, clarity or level first?
Whichever you are not going to replace. Levelling a stone whose class or clarity you intend to change later spends material on something you will discard. Decide the end state, then find the bottleneck layer between here and there.
How do I estimate my daily Cor Draconis farming?
Take an ordinary day rather than your best one, and count the characters you actually farm on rather than the ones you own. Optimistic inputs are the most common reason a plan that looked like two weeks turns into two months.
Is using an alchemy simulator against the rules?
It cannot be: nothing here talks to the game. It is a page that does arithmetic on numbers you type in, with nothing to install and no connection to your account.
Is the simulator free?
Yes, with no sign-up and no limit on how many scenarios you run. Every tool on the site works the same way.
Related Metin2 planning tools
Alchemy competes for the same farming hours as everything else worth saving for, so it is worth comparing before committing a month to it:
- Upgrade simulator — the same expected-cost question applied to items rather than stones.
- Yang goal calculator — converts any target into the farming hours needed to fund it.
- Event calendar — when Catch the King runs, and what to do in the stretches when it does not.
- All Metin2 tools — the full set in one place.